Forecasting the Rise in Global Warming W.R.T. Co2 Levels

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Forecasting the Rise in Global Warming W.R.T. Co2 Levels

Category : Articles

Sales Forecasting Project
Link Between CO2 Emission and Surface Temperature
Shuchi Gupta

Introduction

Global warming? is the increase in the? average temperature? of? Earths near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. According to the 2007? Fourth Assessment Report? by the? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? (IPCC), global surface temperature increased by 0.74? ?±? 0.18? ?°C? (1.33? ?±? 0.32? ?°F) during the 20th century.? Most of the observed temperature increases since the middle of the 20th century has been? caused? by increasing concentrations of? greenhouse gases, which result from? human activities such as the burning of? fossil fuel? and? deforestation.

CO2 leads to an increase in the temperature of the Earth??™s surface, due to a phenomenon known as the Greenhouse Effect. The? greenhouse effect? is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary surface is absorbed by atmospheric? greenhouse gases, and is re-radiated in all directions. Since part of this re-radiation is back towards the surface, energy is transferred to the surface and the lower atmosphere. As a result, the temperature there is higher than it would be if direct heating by solar radiation were the only warming mechanism.

The following research is to find out whether this supposed link is true, and if so, then to what extent.

Data Source

All the resources for the time series data is taken from government run sites, which are themselves into research for many years now, to ensure the accuracy of the data.

The data set for the surface temperature is taken from the Nasa site -http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

The date set for the levels of CO2 emissions have been taken from Climate Change Organisation site -http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html

Methodology used in the project is :
* Single Moving Average
* Double Moving Average
* Exponential Smoothing
* Single Regression Technique

Single Moving Average and Double Moving Average

Single :

Double :

Moving Averages

Absolute Error : 0.51 %

Exponential Smoothing

Absolute Error : 0.41 %
Plot for Exponential Smoothing

This graph shows that the forecast is almost similar to the real and actual data, as shown by the green and red line coinciding. Green line is the smoothing curve, and the red line is the actual data.

Linear Regression

Formulae :
y=ax+b where, a=slope and b=intercept

Slope : a= X-Xbar*Y-Ybar
(X-Xbar)^2

Absolute Error = 0.71 %

Interpretation

* The forecast was made for the year 2008 as to what the mean surface temperature and the CO2 levels will be
* Forecast for 2008 is 14.7 degrees, which is higher than the previous years
* Error is around 0.41 in exponential smoothing
* Error is around 0.71 in single regression technique

This goes to show that the best method, which explains this data, is the Exponential Smoothing technique.

The main interpretation from the project is that there is a dependence of the rise in surface temperature of Earth on the levels of CO2 emission into the atmosphere. Although there is an error associated with this, it can be attributed to other contributors of Global Warming, and natural disasters, which have not been taken into account here.
Hence, Global Warming must be taken seriously.

Conclusion & Recommendations

The main conclusion can be summarized as :
* The forecast for Earth??™s temperature in the coming years seems to indicate a shift towards warmer climates
* This indicates that theory of Global Warming is proving to be true
* Environmentalists and people together should shift towards a healthier lifestyle to save planet Earth

As a strong recommendation, it is necessary that we shift towards a healthier lifestyle, and stop polluting the environment. Shift towards greener sources of energy like water and Sun is needed.