Forecasting with Indices
QRB/501
Monique McCoy
January 19, 2012
Professor Sorin Gudea

Forecasting with Indices

Forecasting inventory is an important function in most businesses. Businesses can forecast the demand for their product or services using many tools such as on historical data. With proper forecasting of needs such as supplies, revenue, and product required a business can anticipate the demands of the consumer. Good forecasting will meet customer demand and decrease the cost of unsold inventory. Historical data will also show the increases and decreases in demand of seasonal products such as winter accessories.
To determine the forecasting with indices I used the University of Phoenix Winter Historical Inventory Data. The formula used to determine the historical data over a period of 4 years, the analysis used to forecast year 5 was data taken from month 1 so forth adding Year 1 + Year 2 + Year 3 + Year 4 divided by4; the answer is the forecast predicted for Year 5 month 1 through month 12. To find the average add Year 1 from month 1 through 12 then divide by 12 and so forth with Year 2, Year 3 and Year 4.

Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Forecast Year 5 |
55,200.00 | 39,800.00 | 32,180.00 | 62,300.00 | 47,370.00 |
57,350.00 | 64,100.00 | 38,600.00 | 66,500.00 | 56,638.00 |
15,400.00 | 47,600.00 | 25,020.00 | 31,400.00 | 29,855.00 |
27,700.00 | 43,050.00 | 51,300.00 | 36,500.00 | 39,638.00 |
21,400.00 | 39,300.00 | 31,790.00 | 16,800.00 | 27,323.00 |
17,100.00 | 10,300.00 | 31,100.00 | 18,900.00 | 19,325.00 |
18,000.00 | 45,100.00 | 59,800.00 | 35,500.00 | 35,550.00 |
19,800.00 | 46,530.00 | 30,740.00 | 51,250.00 | 37,080.00 |
15,700.00 | 22,100.00 | 47,800.00 | 34,400.00 | 30,000.00 |
53,600.00 | 41,350.00 | 73,890.00 | 68,000.00 | 47,210.00 |
83,200.00 | 46,000.00 | 60,200.00 | 68,100.00 | 64,370.00 |
72,900.00 | 41,800.00 | 55,200.00 | 61,000.00 | 57,750.00 |
38,113.00 | 40,586.00 | 44,802.00 | 45,896.00 | Average |